I think this is now a three horse race for one play off position. Tooting and Dorking were gone long ago and unless they have a complete melt down, and that is hard to believe with the finances they have at their disposal, then Greenwich are there also. And finally Corinthian appear to be the form team with a win at Cray followed by two comfortable wins over both Dorking and Greenwich, meaning they have now opened a nice four point gap and they finish the season Chipstead, Walton Casuals, Godalming at home. A win over Hastings next Saturday will almost guarantee the play off spot.
That leaves five possible teams vying for one spot. Carshalton, Hythe, South Park, Lewes and the U's.
Yes they keep picking up points, but I am discounting South Park. Three games a week for rest of the season for a team like South Park and their resources. History just tells you they are going to hit a brick wall and with games coming up against Lewes, Hythe, Tooting, Dorking and Hastings I am confident they will not catch up.
Then we have Lewes who were surprisingly beat at Godalming on Saturday. They have by far the most difficult run in and they have not really looked capable all season of going on a six or seven game winning run. Their run in is as follows;
H - East Grinstead, Faversham, Corinthian, Hastings
A - South Park, Greenwich, Carshalton, Chatham
That looks really tough for Lewes and they are probably going to need to win five or six of those games, so I am perhaps foolishly discounting them.
So that leaves three, Carshalton, Hythe and Hastings. Carshalton one point ahead, with Hastings and Hythe having one game in hand. Hythe have the toughest run in, just, over Hastings whilst Carshalton have the easiest with six very winnable games.
Hastings - H - Molesey, Walton Casuals, Chipstead A - Corinthian, Godalming, Cray, South Park, Lewes
Carshalton - H - Three Bridges, Herne Bay, Lewes, East Grinstead A - Guernsey, Sittingbourne, Tooting
Hythe - H - Corinthian, Whytleafe, Chatham A - Molesey, Guernsey, South Park, Dorking, Horsham
In the Observer Darren claims Hastings need 19 points from a possible 27, make that now 24. That is six wins and a draw from their last eight, which I think is about right. A point at both Corinthian and Lewes and then six wins from the remainder?. That is tough and although I expect three comfortable home wins, our away fixtures mixed with our very ordinary away form makes it look increasingly difficult.
I am keeping everything crossed in the JW household and really hope we can pull it off, but despite their fairly average form at present, I would put Carshalton in the box seat unless of course we win at Corinthian. If we pull that off then suddenly we will be the favourites.
-- Edited by johnw on Monday 13th of March 2017 08:55:26 AM
That will be nice Bert but not sure 16 points will do it. I think we need to go rest of the season unbeaten and need 19/20 points. That also means that South Park, according to your league, are going the rest of the season unbeaten!
Lewes and Hythe at home, with Chatham in-between, followed by visits to Dorking and Tooting all in the space of 12 days. South Park will not be part of the final shake up, I am confident of that.
I agree with John that it is very hard to imagine that South Park will be in the play-offs come the end of season. Also pretty difficult to see Tooting as other than champions and Dorking (a little more problematic perhaps) as runners up. As for us, well as many of us - notably Chris - have been saying all season it really is about consistency. After an excellent win against Carshalton we had three points from four games. Saturday's win was vital but it will count for little if we fail to beat Molesey and Godalming. If we achieve that we'll have an excellent chance of getting one of the last two play-off spots. I've thought for a while that our likely points total will be around 84. Get two more wins and that will look realisic; fail to do that and it will look very optimistic.
Can't believe that after this Saturday we will only have 2 Home matches left.
If we can get 9 points from our last 3 home matches against Molesey, Walton Casuals and Chipstead as our home form this season hasn't been too bad considering, but the problem is we have drawn too many away matches and only won 7 on the road and even East Grinstead have won 8 away!
I think that we can beat Godalming away, but as for the rest we will have to grind out some sort of results against Lewes, Cray and South Park away which won't be easy as I think we will need about 85 points to finish in the play offs.
Lewes and Hythe at home, with Chatham in-between, followed by visits to Dorking and Tooting all in the space of 12 days. South Park will not be part of the final shake up, I am confident of that.
And after yesterday's defeat against Lewes is indeed South Park not one of the contesters anymore.
Looks like Lewes and maybe South Park will be real 'six pointers' that we can't afford to lose. It's been said before but Lewes's run is quite remarkable still having to play all four of their major rivals. I expect it will still be 'all to play for' on Easter Monday.....just a shame Brighton have their quite important game that day at the AMEX......but a big gate at Lewes anyway.
Last night Dorking & Greenwich took one step closer to securing 2nd & 3rd spot respectively that is unless Dorking pip Tooting to the Title!
I wouldn't fancy playing either of those away from home but then again as SS said the play offs are a Lottery as 10 years ago we weren't expected to beat Dover & Tooting away but we did and managed to get promotion so anything can happen.